BoC walks tightrope: Growth gains hampered by slowing demand making a hold at 2.75% likely

Kuntal Khasnobish
Thursday, July 17, 2025
BoC walks tightrope: Growth gains hampered by slowing demand making a hold at 2.75% likely
Canada’s GDP surprised forecasters with a 2.2% annualized growth rate in Q1, fueled by strong exports and government spending. On paper, the economy looks healthy. But dig deeper, and the picture gets murkier. Households are stretched thin. Small businesses are pulling back. Delinquencies are up, hiring is down.

That leaves the Bank of Canada facing a classic policy dilemma: hold steady to keep inflation in check, or cut rates to cushion an economy showing signs of fatigue? As the July 30 decision approaches, the answer is anything but clear.

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